The most common criticism of publicly funded projects is that they are so often over budget and behind schedule. There is no shortage of famous examples. High-speed rail in California, the Big Dig in Boston, and the Channel Tunnel. Most of them are completed eventually and produce amazing results like the Hubble Space Telescope, the International Space Station, and JWST. Some are abandoned after much effort is expended like the Superconducting Super Collider in Texas. While there are many valid reasons why each of these projects strayed from the original plan, I believe the main reasons why these projects got off track is that they never were on it. 

Let’s start with an example closer to home. Have you ever tried to follow a recipe you saw someone on YouTube throw together in a few minutes? And have you also gotten frustrated that what looked so easy to do, took way longer than you had planned and the result bore no resemblance to the one in the video? I have been there more often than I care to remember and here are three reasons why: unacknowledged prep-work, readiness of resources, and lack of experience. Sure, cutting a single carrot into thin and even sticks looks doable. But try to prepare five pounds of it. If you haven’t spent weeks practicing slicing and dicing onions like Julia Childs, any prep-work is likely to take you a lot more time that you may have planned for. Have you also noticed that, in the video, at critical moments all ingredients are prepped, measured, and ready to go in? Unless of course, you watch Alison Roman’s videos when she rummages through her kitchen cupboards hunting for the elusive cinnamon stick. Finally, it often looks easy because the host has many years of experience doing it. Your results will vary.

But aren’t all public projects planned by professionals who have done these before and are experts in their areas? Of course, but these projects aren’t donuts rolling off the conveyor belt. Even if you are in the business of digging tunnels, your team doesn’t really know what they will encounter until they start digging. Which brings us finally to my favorite, the optimism bias. Sure a couple of terrible things have happened the last time we tried to do this, but we now know how to prepare for these. This “it won’t happen to me” attitude is a very positive force that allows us to get out of bed in the morning despite the obvious futility of our struggle against the unavoidable death of ourselves and everyone we love. [Sorry, occasionally my German roots are showing.] But optimism bias is not a project planning tool. 

How much will it cost? When will it be done? What will it be able to do?  These are the typical questions a project manager on large, complex, often generational projects is supposed to answer. They seem so reasonable yet the answers are often: We have no idea. It will be done when it is done. It will cost what it costs and only then will we find out how well it works. I am exaggerating here. Of course, Toyota knows exactly how long it takes to build a Camry. But pyramids and medieval cathedrals aren’t consumer products. Neither is a space telescope with a 6.5-meter primary mirror which, by the way, has to fold up to fit inside the launch vehicle. 

Here are three suggestions on how to navigate the situation: (1) delay announcing or even developing a cost estimate as long as possible. Overly optimistic numbers too often become anchors that drag down the momentum of a project. It is intellectually honest, alas rarely popular, to say that it is too early to give a number. (2) Instead, stay in the analogy realm as that is generally a more reliable guide than “engineering judgement.” Focus on what it took to complete similar projects instead of what experts think it should cost. Replace costing exercises with careful scope definitions. What does it take to build this? (3) Through out the project lifecycle, make sure you bring as many of your stake holders as possible along for the ride and that you are carefully listening to their concerns. Sharing the disappointments and hard choices you have to make in addition to your successes goes a long way to ensure the ongoing support of your project.  

You should have a strong focus on reminding everyone what the goal is and explain why the goal continues to matter. If these goals start to lose support, ask yourself and your team very seriously what the reason for that may be and how you can rebuild that support. Not every pyramid will be completed, but we should learn from every attempt.